Table of Contents
The World Trade Organization (WTO) will likely slash its trade forecasts for 2023 and 2024, amid weak global economic conditions and disruptions to shipping through the Suez Canal.
- The WTO had initially projected a 0.8% increase in merchandise trade volumes for 2023 and a 3.3% rise for 2024.
- But rising geopolitical tensions, including the impact of Houthi-rebel attacks in the Red Sea, are posing significant threats to trade growth.
WTO’s Chief Economist Ralph Ossa told Reuters that the current annual growth estimates now seem "overly optimistic", and they plan to release updated figures in two months.
"At the moment, (2023 growth) looks like it's going to be less than 0.8%. Whether it's positive or negative, I don't know," he stated. The performance in Europe has been weaker than expected, and China's post-COVID recovery has not been as robust as anticipated.
But it’s not all doom and gloom… Ossa emphasized that goods trade this year is still expected to outdo 2023.
Despite the geopolitical hiccups and slowdown fears, the global economy and world trade are hanging tough, and we are unlikely to see an economic shock on the scale of the COVID-19 era.
